H5N1: A Pale Rider Upon a Pale Horse, or Just a Little Under the Weather?
by Jason GodeskyI looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him.
– Revelation 6:8
Fact-esque notified me that we’re in the middle of “Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.” The UN warns that it could kill 150 million; others fear that the death toll might even reach 1 billion. George Bush is citing an avian flu pandemic in his case for nation-wide martial law. It can be hard to take such warnings seriously after SARS, West Nile, Ebola, hantavirus, Monkeypox and so many other warnings of pandemic have failed to come to pass. This boy has certainly cried “wolf” quite a few times. Still, it is important to distinguish between the fear-mongering of politicians and the sensationalist media, and the sober warnings of scientists. So where does all this hoopla about the avian flu fall? Is it a serious threat, or just media hype? What role would an avian flu pandemic play in the collapse?
The name “influenza” comes from the ancient belief that the course of the disease was influenced by the stars. Influenza is caused by an RNA virus of the orthomyxoviridae family, responsible for seasonal epidemics colloquially known as “flu season.” There are three types of influenza–A, B, and C–identified by antigenic differences in their nucleoprotein and matrix protein. B and C are rarely the ones we worry about, because they appear primarily in humans. That may seem odd and counter-intuitive, until you realize that nearly all of our epidemic diseases are zoonotic: we get them from domesticated animals. This is how Europeans came by the 
eponymous “germs” of Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs & Steel. Smallpox came from cows; cholera from chickens; the plague came from domesticated farm animals; AIDS came from monkeys; on and on. Animal domestication put humans into close contact with animals for the first time; it also created large, concentrated populations, and wide-ranging trade networks for epidemics to spread across. This is what kept ebola from killing everyone; it killed too quickly. It burned out whole communities in Africa before it had a chance to spread. With teeming cities of millions of people and air travel capable of crossing continents in a few hours, the stage is certainly set for a truly horrific outbreak.
Every animal population has certain endemic diseases. Chicken pox has become endemic to the North American H. sapiens population, for example. It has become part of the population’s normal existence. They have all the proper resistances in place, and its occurence is a normal thing. Then there are epidemic diseases. Epidemics occur when some new disease appears, something to which they have no resistance. Smallpox in the Americas after 1492 was an epidemic that wiped out some 99% of the population. Speaking more to the topic at hand, the Spanish flu–the influenza strain behind the disastrous 1918 pandemic–came from birds. When an epidemic ravages the entire, global population of a species, it is a pandemic.
That is why it influenza type A that worries us the most. Type A influenza is found in birds and mammals, and includes a number of types that humans have never been exposed to–types that humans have no immunity or defense against. This kind of influenza can ravage a human population. That’s precisely what the Spanish flu did in 1918.
Yesterday, the BBC reported that scientists had reconstructed the 1918 influenza virus from the lung remains of its victims, and concluded that it had its origins as a recently-adapted avian flu. Recombinomics carried more scientific detail, reporting:
It is possible that the high pathogencity of the 1918 virus was related to its emergence as a human-adapted avian influenza virus. These changes may reflect a process of parallel evolution as avian influenza A viruses mutate in response to adaptational pressures, and suggest that the genetic basis of avian influenza virus adaptation to humans can be mapped.
H5N1 is currently acquiring mammalian polymorphisms, which is why several of the mammalian polymorphisms in the 1918 H1N1 pandemic strain are found in H5N1 isolates from Vietnam and Thailand.
H5N1 mutates a great deal. This is what has so long worried scientists; that due to such high mutation rates, and close contact with humans, H5N1 would jump the species barrier, introducing a new strain of influenza to which human populations have no resistance. While some might believe that modern medicine would make an epidemic today less worrisome, James Steckelberg at the Mayo Clinic takes the opposite view: that denser populations, global travel, and antibiotic-resistant bacteria are creating an environment where we not only know of more epidemic diseases, but they have greater ability to become a full-blown pandemic.
But H5N1 can only follow that course if it mutates to spread from human to human. Previously, it had been known only to go from birds to humans. WHO has kept careful track of all the human cases of H5N1 to date, but it seems likely that H5N1 may be vastly underreported, as it is easily misdiagnosed as dengue fever. Most of the confirmed cases have occured in China. China insists it isn’t a problem–but then, China has been trying to hide the evidence that they’re lying. Even more alarmingly, we’ve begun to see the first signs of efficient human-to-human transmission….
Influenza pandemics tend to occur once every 30-40 years. It’s been 50 years since the last influenza pandemic, so we’re “due,” and H5N1 certainly looks like a strong candidate to take up that role. What will be the effect of this pandemic on the unfolding collapse that we’ve been following here at Anthropik?
My guess: not much.
The most reliable death toll predictions right now seem to be the lower ones, in the millions. Even the highest, most controversial estimate–Dr. Omi’s maverick prediction of 1 billion dead–is less than 1/6 of the world’s total population. The Black Death had some profound effects on the civilized world (the resulting reduction in agriculture, for example, led to the Little Ice Age), but that wiped out a third of Europe’s population. The Spanish flu was bizarre, in that it affected the healthiest cohort most–wiping out the fighting men of Europe, and putting the Great War on a twenty-year hiatus, to be concluded with round 2, starting in 1939.
It’s very difficult for a plague to be truly “apocalyptic,” because viruses have their own marginal return curve. Those infected first are the easiest to infect; as time goes on, all that’s left are the hardier, healthier specimens. Even worse for the virus, as this goes on, antibodies are being built up and immunity becomes widespread throughout the population. Even individuals who lack immunity become protected by the “herd effect”–when everyone around them is immune, it’s very hard for the vulnerable individual to come in contact with the virus. This means that epidemic diseases cause great misery, suffering and death; but there are always survivors. Even an absolute, insatiable killer like ebola essentially runs up against itself–ebola killed too quickly to spread very much. In the case of a new kind of flu, we might see the kind of death and destruction we saw in 1918, though more than that seems increasingly unlikely.
A major epidemic could exacerbate a collapse, by placing still more stress on an already stressed system. Or, it could help alleviate the stress of collapse, by reducing demand and generally opening up space for complexity to grow. We can certainly see some of this in the wake of the Black Death in Europe, which may have had a good deal to do with the Renaissance.
I’m not an epidemiologist, and my understanding of H5N1 is dwarfed by many others, but so far it seems like something that has great potential to do terrible harm in the near future. I don’t know which way this is going to go, but right now, the avian flu seems like the most significant “wild card” in the unfolding collapse.
Useful Avian flu resources
- Warnings of a Flu Pandemic: a “web focus” feature from Nature
- Flu Wiki
- Avian Flu Fact Sheet from the World Health Organization.
- Avian Influenza, a fact sheet from the Centers for Disease Control.
Didn’t he get the memo? We don’t want him to be dictator. Any way, love the chart.
Ok, my main concerns are four fold:
1) this might slow up the crash too much
2) this might speed up the crash too much
3) I might be personally dead
4) this will restrict movement
Of the four, you got the first two pretty solid. However, you woefully under-analyized the last two, thereby passing up a perfect “ditch boy” joke. Jim will never forgive you.
As for movement: while most of our communication is currently online, which should not be greatly effected, we are trying to make more and more of our communication occur on the physical plane. While the world of electrons is certainly a useful medium, it does have its issues. If the various tribes are already gathered then limiting movement will not be an issue inner-tribally, but inter-tribally the Confederation would be crippled. If the tribes are not yet gathered there is the issue of the tribes being forcefully seperated from each other and themselves. That could either be the greatest disaster possible, or our proudest momen. Bit of a toss up there really. Unfortunately, without a good prediction, or even the possiblity of making one, it becomes difficult to plan for it. Our time table is unbelieveably short as is, considering what we’re trying to accomplish. So shortening that up any more would probably be a recipe for disaster. Leaving us with only the providence of the gods.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 6 October 2005 @ 4:59 PM
Well, epidemics tend to burn through a population very quickly. The Spanish flu did its damage in a matter of weeks. So, the barring of movement due to quarantine shouldn’t last long enough to be a significant factor.
Now, if they do that whole martial law thing, that’s another story….
As for me, who knows? I might not last the day. You makes your bets and you takes your chances.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 6 October 2005 @ 5:13 PM
I meant when would it start. It would essentially be started and over in a month, or two at the outside. But when? That’s harder to predict.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 6 October 2005 @ 7:43 PM
Epidemiologists more knowledgeable than I say it will be soon–next few months. Hell if I know, though…. I’m not even entirely convinced yet that it will happen, it’s just on my radar of “things to stay on top of.”
Comment by Jason Godesky — 6 October 2005 @ 11:29 PM
There are a lot of headlines on this vein - “Police Investigate New York Subway Terror Threat”, “Subway Security Boosted in Response to Threat”, “Indiana Bomb Squad Blows Up Car Loaded With Explosives”, “State Dept Summoning 65 Govenors to Meet in Washington tomorrow to stop Avian Flu”, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Frankly, I’m of the opinion that there seems to be an agenda to keep the fear and paranoia up. Obviously, this serves some purposes, somewhere. For one, it prevents you, the recipient of this propaganda (which often proves to be untrue) from concentrating on anything of importance. It also keeps you in a state of “perpetual expectation” and “reliance” upon the powers that be to “protect you”.
I think it’s a scam.
And I think we’re being setup and I think we should call a spade a spade.
I don’t “care” if any of these turn out to be true, in that the agenda, as it were, is very obvious (to me).
The State requires your dependency, which obviously requires you to pay attention to it’s clamoring demands. This incessent racket is making me deaf and I want to find a way around it.
First off - if avian bird flue is in the population - there’s nothing I can do about it anyway. Nothing that I’m not already doing (washing my hands, avoiding public places, etc.).
And if there are “terrorists” bombers (wearing suits I’m sure) in our midst - again, there is nothing that I can do about it. I’m not even going to get excited. I don’t ride the subway - and even if I did - what of it? Would I take a taxi? Would I walk? Not likely. The reality is, people almost always refuse to change their lifestyles. Even if it means they’ll die (look around).
All these “alerts” and “scares” are doing is freaking people out and its high time to point this out. It means diddly-sh*t to me, ’cause my life isn’t going to change one iota. It’s just background noise.
This is where learning to live without the nanny state can really help. Stop the influence of their scaremongering in your life. Lock them out, shut them off and turn them down. Whatever they have to say isn’t going to affect your life anyway.
_________________
A new human culture is needed that increases the life on the earth, living from the increase rather then the decrease.
A virtue of outrage is that it requires little effort.
Comment by Survival Acres — 7 October 2005 @ 1:37 PM
Sure, there’s a huge incentive to keep people scared, to maintain hierarchy. It’s always been a favorite means of exerting control–that’s so patently obvious, it should be understandable as common knowledge.
But epidemics do occur, and they very often play a role in collapse. We’re experiencing the first stages of a collapse now. There is a much more important question than whether or not the powers of the world want to control us with fear of avian flu, and that is: is is really going to happen that way?
I don’t know the answer to that, and my article was certainly not meant to be fear-mongering. As I mentioned at the beginning, the boy’s cried wolf so many times that skepticism is completely understandable. But that doesn’t necessarily mean there are no wolves, either.
I’m not huddling under my covers in terror of the big bad bird flu; neither am I looking to the government to save me. I certainly did not write this with the intention of instilling either attitude in my readership. Rather, I’m in the midst of a very complex project to chart the collapse as it happens, and thus to provide the kind of information that people will need to survive it–how it’s happening, on what timeline, etc. My hope is that this information will help save people’s lives.
I’m not writing about H5N1 to promote some fear-mongering agenda; I’m writing about it because it may play a role in the collapse, and that makes it something we need to keep track of.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 7 October 2005 @ 3:03 PM
To add my two cents: even liers sometimes tell the truth, it keeps people guessing.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 8 October 2005 @ 1:05 AM
This makes sense to me; it’s essentially what happened with ebola.
The articles goes on to warn that the hysteria is much more dangerous:
Again, I’m out of my depth on this topic. Do we have any epidemiologists in the hizzy who can say yay or nay to this? It certainly makes a lot of sense to me, but “makes sense” is hardly the golden standard of veracity.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 14 October 2005 @ 10:16 AM
Hey –
Not to suggest that I am an expert….
The one thing that pops out at me is this:
Well.. yes and no. A pandemic does not make any difference if the mortality rate is low — think the common cold, or simple flu. So for a serious pandemic, you would need to have a high mortality rate, but also a long incubation time, coupled with high contagiousness — most effectively airborne transmission.
From what I do know, a disease can mutate to become airborn fairly easily… but the incubation time (before symptoms appear) is the really crucial bit.
So if this disease as a mortality of 50% (or better) within 5-7 days of exposure, that’s pretty quick and therefore containable. But the question is this — is that 5-7 days after exposure, or 5-7 days after symptoms appear. If it is the latter, then its irrelevant. Its the earlier period that is key.
Janene
Comment by Janene — 14 October 2005 @ 11:35 AM