Peak & Crash
by Jason GodeskyWe recently had a rousing discussion about Peak Oil and collapse, centering around John Michael Greer’s “The Long Road Down,” and the idea that the gradual extinction of fossil fuels would lead to a long collapse–”not with a bang, but a whimper.” In thesis #18, we discussed that Peak Oil may cause collapse, if its depletion rate was very high. Stuart Staniford at The Oil Drum guessed the threshold of collapse to be around 11%, and I have no reason to argue that. But, the latest news from Kuwait provides a better guess of what that depletion rate might be.
It seems Kuwait has been lying to us. There’s little surprise there. Most of the Peak Oil estimates were revised down from the teens of this century to, well, 2005, when we discovered that Saudi Arabia and Shell had been exaggerating their reserves. Now, it appears that Kuwait has claimed about twice as much as it really has. Jeff Vail’s analysis, as always, is the most insightful (emphasis added):
Not that this is much of a surprise. Shortly after OPEC began linking production quotas to reserve levels, all the major players miraculously doubled their oil reserves. PIW’s report is the smoking gun that finally shows what has been widely understood all along: that OPEC reserves are really only about half what is claimed.
So what does this mean for our ability to produce oil? Well, the classical Hubbert peak takes place when half the oil in the ground has been produced. However, if you discount OPEC reserves by 50%, it becomes clear that we are WELL past that half-way point. So production should have already begun to decline. This suggests that, as widely feared, only the use of water injection and water flood tecniques to keep reservoir pressure artificially high have kept production rates up for the past several years. The problem with this is that when a field who’s production rate has been artificially sustained beyond the half-way point finally does begin to decline, its rate of decline tends to be very, very high. 10-18% has been suggested (by Simmons and others) as the decline rate for fields that have been pressed to the limits with injection technologies. This is critical, because while Peak Oil may be a quite manageable problem at 2% depletion, 10%+ depletion means that world production will fall by half in less than 7 years.
Once again we see that collapse is already upon us, and has been for a shocking amount of time without our notice. 10-18% depletion falls well into the collapse zone of Staniford’s estimate, as one would expect from oil production halved in seven years. This all suggests that when depletion does become an issue, it will not be quite so much the “long emergency” that Greer discusses, but may come more in the form of the kind of sudden, catastrophic, self-reinforcing crash that Tainter predicts–the end of nearly all our complexity, measured over the span of a few decades.
Greer is one of my favorite writers these days. I just discovered last week that he’s a Druid. Very interesting. Since I’m looking around for a new path, I’ll dig into this some more.
From his letter:
This is my vision for a future we as Druids can seek to build: a society emerging from the Long Emergency of the deindustrial age, enriched with green knowledge and Earth-honoring skills brought through by successors of 21st-century Druids who saw what was coming and took action while there was still time.
Comment by Peter — 23 January 2006 @ 2:19 PM
Thanks for this information. I do admit that Greer based his claim on a low depletion rate.
Comment by aksum — 23 January 2006 @ 2:59 PM
I was wondering if that was the same John Michael Greer, but I guess that link unites those two themes sufficiently to draw the conclusion, doesn’t it?
Comment by Jason Godesky — 23 January 2006 @ 4:42 PM
I went to college with John Michael (he uses both words together as his name) and was in the Odd Fellows and another fraternal, esoteric, order with him.
He’s the author of, oh, six or so occultist books on Qabalah, Ceremonial Magic, Geomancy, Fraternal Lodge Work, etc.
He’s a very smart guy and we were once close friends. He’s also an anal retentive git who broke up a friendship with me and a number of others via a *form letter* of all things. He’s a relatively inflexible person when his mind is made up. The druid thing is relatively new but he’s been doing Western-based esoteric work for about 25 years now (since he was a teen). At one point, I learned quite a bit from him.
My understand is that he moved from Seattle (where I am) to Ashland, Oregon about two years ago as part of his expectation of things falling apart around larger cities. He’s heavily involved with fraternalism and voluntary simplicity because he finds them to be longterm sustainable.
Even when we were in college, he was predicting the kinds of things that he writes about now. He’s been expecting the modern technological civilization to fail under its own weight for quite some time. He did once say that he would have been a good fit for the 19th century.
Comment by Al — 23 January 2006 @ 5:24 PM
It’s the same person, Jason.
Comment by Peter — 23 January 2006 @ 5:59 PM
So I concluded.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 23 January 2006 @ 6:07 PM
Over the past two weeks I have become a Peak Oil believer. Up until recently, I was still hoping to find something that would debunk it.
Now with the news that Kuwait’s reserves have been grossly overstated, I am finally resolved to the fact that Peak Oil is not only a real threat but that it’s arrived.
Here’s some more bad news:
“If this is so, why don’t they say so? Probably because they are unstable régimes with booming populations, like Saudi Arabia, and fear that if they
told the truth the US might invade them to grab the remaining oil. Or their people might revolt if they found out that their already declining standard
of living was about to drop further.
If we have hit the structural production peak of oil worldwide, then the trajectory of prices will be relentlessly upward, with only temporary respites. The spokesmen will blather on about ‘terrorism’ or ‘refinery fires’, but the prices will tell the real story. If the increasing prices start a
recession that reduces demand, there will be another temporary ‘respite’ as production continues a relentless decline after we have gone over the peak.
“Oil prices will rise through 2008 and stay high thereafter as demand increases and concern mounts that global production is nearing its peak,”
according to analysts at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (March 8, 2005)
When Lehman Brothers admits oil is peaking on Bloomberg, its time to fasten your seatbelts. The ride is going to be rocky.”
http://www.energybulletin.net/4716.html
I feel nauseous.
Don’t block the bathroom.
Comment by Peter — 23 January 2006 @ 9:09 PM
Wouldn’t actual gasoline derived from the oil show how much oil was in the oil and the amount of seawater and its value would be determined that way? I hope you understood that.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 10:29 AM
No, that’s not how it works. Gasoline is a specific product made from the process of refining crude oil. If this is what’s happening, then OPEC is injecting water in order to keep the pressure up in the reserves. Ever mix oil and water? Oil rises to the top, and you just keep on pumping. The stuff they send out, whether they’re injecting oil or not, is still the same: crude.
It’s much more noteworthy the sulphur content and number of impurities in the crude they send out. “Heavy, sour” crude indicates that they’re starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel, so to speak.
Saudi Arabia had some trouble selling its crude by the end of 2005. Too heavy. Too sour….
Actually, this is probably one of the best case scenarios. Civilization dying for lack of cheap energy is much better than, say, civilization dying for lack of oxygen.
You want it to choke on its own weight, not crush us underneath it. This is one of the collapse scenarios that does the best job of preserving the human race’s ability to survive.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 10:52 AM
Planet warming, the water is pumped into the reservoir to push or float the oil to the top of the reservoir and to the surface. When you first put a well into a reservoir that has been down there under pressure for millions with the oil trapped by impermeable rock layers above, the oil gushes out under its own pressure. As more oil is extracted, the pressure drops and soon one needs to apply additional means to get the remaining oil out. The “additional means” are expensive and use energy. Thus the net value of the remaining oil begins to decline. Also the oil that comes up first is the oil that flows the easiest–the oil with the lowest viscosity. The oil that remains to be extracted is thicker and harder to refine into usable fuel. Thus depletion is also a progression towards lower and lower quality oil. Harder to refine, more energy intensive to refine.
Isn’t “Long Emergency” J H Kunstler’s term? Did he borrow it from someone else? I don’t remember him crediting it in his book.
On “the oil drum” the analysis that Stuart Staniford and the rest of those excellent sources do seems to be of the highest order to me. Lots of industry insiders and such speaking plainly. But I have wondered if Stuart’s decline scenarios include accelerated decline due to overly aggressive techniques. For example the North Sea is declining at around 10% annually right now.
As fields move into decline in an atmosphere of scarcity, the most aggressive techniques will be applied as fast as possible which will boost production and boost rates of decline as a function of that.
Each percent rise in decline rate after the peak implies a catalog of personal catastrophes across the globe.
Comment by Matt — 24 January 2006 @ 11:20 AM
So, could collapse happen instantly or within a year after oil peaks do you think?
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 11:40 AM
It is. I just found it an apt description of Greer’s views, as well.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 11:40 AM
Define “instantly.” Over a year? That seems far-fetched to me. Over a decade, perhaps, but I think that’s the fastest you could realistically expect.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 11:41 AM
That’s a relief. I really had a dillema about working for money to go to Tracker School or do this two year program that will pay a lot more when I’m done so I can become ultra-prepared much quicker. There are a lot of people that seem to think once peak oil happens TSWHTF. I have really been stressing about it. I even cried last night. If there is that steep of a depletion rate for the next succeeding year, that will cause reverberating collapse.
It would be nice if a lot of people didn’t have babies because of the lack of enough food and the future outlook. So, they don’t have to dieoff.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 12:01 PM
What’s this two year program?
Comment by Giulianna Lamanna — 24 January 2006 @ 12:02 PM
Peak Oil already happened–probably a while ago, if Vail’s right. So far, only minimal shit has hit only a few fans. The Shit remains unhit as of yet, I think.
But, it’s good to have a fire up under your ass. There’s still enough time, if you keep at it and approach it with sufficient urgency. The Tribe of Anthropik’s going to be on the accelerated course this year, followed by one of the intense primitive skills courses, like year-long, total immersion stuff. Our goal is to be self-sufficient by 2010, and so far, all plans are on schedule.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 12:20 PM
Nursing Associate’s Degree
I’m conflicted. It’s like you said about choosing to stick with civilization or not. I want to live. If I do this and get an expendable job that would likely be eliminated first in peak oil and get trained, then I’ll be screwed if it isn’t catastrophic for awhile and I don’t have anyone. I still have debt too. I just wonder if I can have 2009 still be okay to be a nurse and get money and take all the primitive school courses.
By the way, I studied environmental studies in college and can’t get a permanent job, just seasonal environmental education jobs. It sucks because it’s like my actually caring in a world was punished, but maybe I should have considered that the world obviously doesn’t care anyway. I guess I just expected to be admitted into the EPA. But then, I guess it is spoiled of me to expect more though really. I don’t need all this extra, but it will suck. But I want more so I can prepare better. I just get myself into the dillemas a lot of what decision I should make because I regret what decisions I have made so far.
I learned about oil depletion in college. A whole series of videos about it. They probably talked about the peak. I guess it just didn’t register.
Maybe, that’s more than you wanted to know, but I guess I just feel like sharing. This shit has caused me a lot of stress and anguish that no one I know can really understand. They just say everything will be alright but they don’t know what I mean because I can’t tell them. It sounds too crazy and it’s like the worst conversation in the world to have when you are talking with other people in your life that are typical Americans, so I can’t tell them.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 12:33 PM
Not at all. I can tell you what I did. I went to the University of Pittsburgh and got a four-year degree in Anthropology and Computer Science. During that time, I figured out what the hell was going on and formulated the thoughts I’ve just finished putting down in the Thirty Theses.
After college, I got a full-time job as a software engineer. It pays for food, an apartment, camping gear, etc. Keeps me alive in the interrim period, and gives me the freedom to start getting ready. Taking weekend classes in wild edibles, herbal medicines, maple sugaring, brain tanning, etc. By the end of the year, I think I’ll be ready. I’ll quit my job and go into one of these year-long primitive skills courses. When I come out, I expect to be ready. Money saved up from my job should be enough to buy a little bit of land adjacent to a national forest, and what little cash expenses I’ll still have (licenses and taxes) will hopefully be covered by revenue from this site.
Anyway, that’s the plan as it stands today….
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 12:40 PM
planetwarming,
I am in a similar situation to you, except I studied Environmental Science, which obviously makes me far superior to you! Though I share some of your sense of urgency, I don’t really understand your attitude to collapse. Collapse is the only way the problems we have studied are going to be solved. If you really care about the world, surely you should be breathing a very big sigh of relief?
Comment by Clive — 24 January 2006 @ 12:49 PM
To quote St. Augustine, “Oh Lord, make me chaste, but not yet.”
Appreciating that collapse is the best alternative for life on earth is a very different thing than hoping it will take its time so we, personally, can be prepared.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 12:51 PM
Where are the year-long primitive courses? What’s the best one? The only one I have heard of is Teaching Drum. I don’t know if I have enough time and money by the time TSHTF. Just for a couple week-long courses. I don’t know if that will make me ready though.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 12:52 PM
Well, yes for the world I guess. But not for myself. I want to live through it. As I said before though, it would be nice if we could just devolve and reduce our population by rationing I suppose. But that is contrary to the way of every other civilization.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 12:58 PM
The first one I found was Earthwalk Northwest’s Primitive Living Skills Apprenticeship, and then Giuli found Teaching Drum. There are probably others.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 1:03 PM
I was even interested in living in the wilderness for some time. Even in college, I learned about people who lived in homesteads in Alaska. I was like “I want to do that.” And then I picked up a copy of “Green Anarchy” because it sounded cool because it sounded like it was about the environment and all radical and stuff. It was the one with the head on it with pollution spewing out of it’s neck. And then, I read Zerzan’s essays like it was my job. Then, I resolved that I would eventually do that after becoming an environmental rap performer and running for office for the Green Party, even though I had conflicting thoughts about the ability and desirability for change. Now, I realize those were stupid goals based on approval from society and a savior complex maybe.
I just didn’t realize that it was so necessary until I came here. Why didn’t Green Anarchy give any hint of this? It seems natural that they would. They just talked about different ways technology and division of labor and mass production are and praising resistence from SUV bombings like that does anything at all. They praise this resistence like these movements are good and help when they don’t and kind of reinforcing the view of how strong civilization is by championing these petty actions like it is just another resistance movement with the assumption that it will continue chugging along within our lifetimes without its own self-destructive forces doing it in.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 1:19 PM
It has really made me think about everything around me as the pinnacle of civilization. Like they say about things that are completely ridiculous being indications that the end of it is near. Like Keith Olberman, a news show on cable, said Anna Nicole Smith getting her case heard at the supreme court saying the apocalyse is here. When you have all these people spending all this money just to get trained in these complex jobs. Kinda goes along with the complexity deal. Okay, I will stop posting for now. Probably over the posting limit with so many in a row.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 1:43 PM
There is no posting limit. Peter and aksum know that.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 1:45 PM
I’m inspired by your stories. I’ll tell mine even if you aren’t interested :p
I’m living in Belgium. I always hated secundary school (here you have primary 6-12 and secundary 12-18) but I just kept doing it because I had enough tricks not to fail. And I didn’t know what to do anyway. Then after school ofcourse I have to get another diploma because the one I had was useless (mathematics-languages). I started some courses which I dropped quite quickly (informatica, politics) but I did finish a half year course as sailor. We sailed from Denmark to Greece and back with an old big three mast sailboat. From that trip I felt the imense power and beauty of nature. So I decided to do biological engineer to learn all about it. I dropped that after 2 days! I’m glad I did, because later on a nature beginners course there also was a graduated bio-engineer and she knew just as little as me about the plants and animals that live here. I tried living in a squat where there was no electricity, running water, etc. I liked the lifestyle but after 2 months I moved out because I couldn’t stand the other squatters anymore, who were just smoking and drinking. And there wasn’t much nature around there (in the city). Now I’m following a 2 year parttime course about medicinal herbs which is really interesting. I’m also trying to learn some skills and learn nature on my own. I’ll follow a free 4month course to be gardener in april, it’s not really cool but then I can earn money doing that. I’d like to do a long fulltime primitive skills course of 1 year somewhere. Just like Teaching Drum, which seems a good course to me. I’d like one here in Europe, but sadly I haven’t heard about any here. The primitive “movement” seems to be almost only existing in the USA.
And the costs of such primitive skills and survival courses are mostly huge.
That’s why I might just do some woofing (work volanterly on organic farms worldwide, you get food and shelter). I’d pick some farms which have no electricity or running water in a natural environment. The people there probably know enough skills I can learn from.
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 2:39 PM
Europe’s been bled for a long time, and so, much more thoroughly. When I try to think of places in Europe where there’s still intact wilderness, well … it’s a short list, isn’t it?
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 2:41 PM
http://www.equipped.com/srvschol.htm#Tracker
This has a list of wilderness survival schools. There seems to be some in the UK you might want to check out. I think Ireland would be a good place to be during collapse. It seems the most natural from what I’ve seen.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 2:54 PM
Yea you have the cold north of scandinavia (where the laps live), and for the rest I don’t really know… Apart from some small nature reservates (which are more like museums because you aren’t even allowed to take 1 flower)
I heard of a Dane who once came home and found his wife with another man. He walked out and has been living in the danish nature since then (20 years). He says he makes delicacies with worms and he dives for mussels in the sea during winter and so on. Before he went out of his house he knew almost nothing. Know he knows how to survive comfortably. It shows that if you just put yourself in the wild that you can learn very quickly.
I wouldn’t see someone survive in the Flemish Belgian nature though. Because here there’s really only houses and streets. An australian who lives there in the wilderness on a farm told my brother: “This place is terrible, it’s just like 1 huge city!”.
North Belgium, South Holland and North Italy (south from the mountains) are probably the worst places in Europe to be. And guess what, I come from Flanders (north belgium) and my girlfriend from North Italy close to Milan (a really ugly city).
I’m not being pessimistic though. There’s still enough nature to be amazed of and learn from for me. I also notice that there are more and more people interested in nature, which is a good sign.
Sometimes I think I should maybe move to Africa. I wonder if I couldn’t learn from some african primitive hunters. Or is that a wrong image I have from africa, maybe they forgot their old ways as well?
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 3:03 PM
I checked out all the UK courses on that list planetwarming. Thx for the tip.
But I see they ask prices like 700 euro for a week. Teaching Drum costs about 4500 euro for a year. I know which one to choose
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 3:17 PM
Another idea: what about joining the army to earn money, train your condition and learn survival skills ?!
I think we’re all against the army, but still, you’re probably not sent out to fight in the first years. Or you could be “sick” when you have to. And it’s probably easy to get in.
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 3:22 PM
I’ve thought of going there too and joining the Bushmen. I saw one person on a TV Show “Taxicab Confessions” who was allowed to live with them for 6 months I think. I would never make it over there though. But they are right under you. You just have to be careful not to go where the genocide and war and famine is happening.
http://www.about-vacations.com/africa/botswana/bushmen.php
Visiting the Bushmen
Today, many of the Bushmen have been driven off their native lands to make room for mining and farming operations. A majority of the population are no longer hunter-gatherers. Instead, they work on farms or ranches, but all is not lost. People working for the preservation of the Bushmen culture have realized that tourism may be their path to salvation. Tours are available that allow you to visit the Bushmen and experience the hunter-gatherer lifestyle. You will be able to participate in hunts, gather edible plants, and witness the wonder of a ritual dance. And with that money, the Bushmen hope to be able to keep their land, preserve their culture and continue their historical survival.
-It might cost some money then though. The guy said they were very accepting. I have heard that people have been asked to join the tribe even. Not in the Bushmen instance I don’t think but in the Amazon. And the guy even had sex with some of the women. I’m not saying this as some sort of perverted porn fixation, but just an indicator of how accepting they are. They are pretty lackadaisical and less big deal about it than they are in Western cultures, so maybe it isn’t an indicator. I don’t know really if you would really be accepted and how you would overcome language barrier. I’m sure there are translation dictionaries of their language and you might get a hang of it and maybe you could communicate in different ways.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 3:25 PM
I don’t know about the army. I think I would pretty much be sent to Iraq as soon as I got done with boot camp. I don’t think being sick would stop them, and it seems now that they are making everyone stay that is in it now even when their time is up.
Euros. I have read an article recently about your Euro, and how this Iranian Oil Bourse I think it’s called is going to allow them to change from the petrodollar. And that will start in March 2006. And so the USA might bomb them so they can’t do that like they did with Saddam. And there is the Strait of Hormez where all the oil from that region gets transported out of which is right by Iran. How secure will that be? Scary to think about.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 3:33 PM
J&G:
What’s your planned sequence?
Marriage -> Year-long primitive immersion
or
Year-long primitive immersion -> Marriage
or
Year-long primitive immersion = Marriage
I’m just concerned about piling on too much new stress at once, possibly yielding:
Year-long primitive immersion = End of Marriage
Comment by JCamasto — 24 January 2006 @ 3:37 PM
Yea well here in Belgium our army is not sent out as much as the US army. Still I think they are in Afghanistan, Congo, Kosovo, etc as “peacekeepers” (like when they fried a boy over a fire some years ago , or rape local women so that at least they’ll have half white childs instead of completely black ones). And after seeing the video “Beyond Treason” about the US army I don’t know if I’d ever want to risk it (with all the fucked up vaccines etc).
What do you mean about the euro?
I understand that Iran wants to switch to euros and that’s one of the reasons the US is going to attack them.
But do you suggest the euro is going to crash or something? If you know something like that, pleaze tell. Because then I’ll spend all my money as quickly as possible :p
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 3:42 PM
No, we’ll be married before we go off to school.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 3:47 PM
Why not during school, I saw they do “wilderness mariages” at teaching drum !
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 3:51 PM
No, I don’t know about the Euro crashing imminently. In fact, the dollar is the one that’s in danger. But if you look on this website, the Euro probably won’t be too far behind.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 4:01 PM
Just out of curiousty, for all those thinking about primitive living. Have you thought about what other people will be doing? What about all those people coming to you who are starving? Will you be able to fight off roving gangs? I still think New Orleans might be a good case study.
Here is a related link I find interesting.
http://www.clairewolfe.com/wolfesblog/arg.html
Comment by Shawn — 24 January 2006 @ 4:28 PM
I don’t know if this is a joke or not, so I’m just going to assume it is and stick it to this idea before anyone makes a terrible mistake.
Military people get paid absolute shit. I’m an E-5 in the Navy (Seabees) after 4 years, which is extremely good advancement in my particular rate; most people with my time in are E-3s, or at best E-4s. I am as well off financially as I am because I have the discipline to live on very little money, and because I’ve spent almost two years of my five-year enlistment in a combat zone (where your pay effectively doubles and there’s nothing to spend money on). Also, to even begin to think of saving money in the military, you almost have to be married, which brings its own problems.
The GI bill is a nice little program, and I am looking forward to getting 36 monthly payments of a little over a G, but I’ll still have a sizable loan to pay off when I finish college, and it doesn’t cover “non-traditional” vocational courses.
My brother in law was sent to Iraq about three weeks after he finished his “A” school (I think they call it AIT in the Army). Iraq sucks balls. I know this from almost two years of personal experience, and I’m telling you that you don’t want to go there.
As for survival skills you learn in the military, I don’t know where to begin. People in the military become more dependent on the system, not less. It’s hard to leave! People get scared into staying in. I see it every day. You’d have to be part of one HELL of a Spec Ops group before they’d teach you survival skills greater than, “Stay in one place and blow your whistle.”
Training your physical condition is a terrible reason to join the military. Military PT is designed to “raise morale” of the troops, not physically condition anyone. I was in better shape before I joined the military, and I didn’t have shin splints then from “running” in formation at 5 mph. And it doesn’t raise my morale any more than a “Two Minutes Hate” get-together would.
Now, THAT I will agree with wholeheartedly. It explains why I can say without conceit that I am more intelligent than every single member of my chain of command, up to and including the CIC.
- Chuck
Comment by Chuck — 24 January 2006 @ 4:36 PM
No one will be coming to us.
That’s why they’ll be starving.
New Orleans is a good case study. First, you’ll note that it’s a city….
As far as defense, I find it unlikely. It’s not like this scenario has never played out before, and in all previous scenarios, people go crazy. They become desperate. They eat anything they can think of. There’s the key:anything they can think of. Most people starve not for lack of food, but lack of imagination.
No one will come to us. No one ever comes to us. Did the Vikings go to the Inuit? Did the Romans send roving gangs into Wales? Where’s the evidence of the Moche going to the Amazonians, or the Hohokam looking to the Shoshoni? In all those cases, the examples were there, staring them right in the face, but that way of life was inconceivable. They starved to death because they truly could not imagine any other way to live.
So, yes, I have thought about what other people will be doing. They’ll be rioting for food; then, they’ll form gangs to take what’s left by force. Finally, they’ll prey on each other as cannibals. And then they’ll be dead.
But to the very end, they’ll never come out to ask us how we live. Once we become primitive, to them, we cease to be people. Our ways are irrelevant, because our ways are those of primitives–not people. Though it never occurs to them consciously, they’d rather die than live like us.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 4:39 PM
They supposedly won’t go in the wilderness. There will plenty of people to eat in the cities.
I could see there being some people trying to survive in the woods that don’t know how that would try to get the people that they find that can help them. There might be ruthless gunhunters. However, they would probably be more friendly and there might be some comraderie in escaping the madness and alliances of some kind would be formed. That’s what I think.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 4:43 PM
Chuck: the army is actually paid well here from the beginning in Belgium. I know some from the army and one of their biggest “tasks” is to stay in good condition. Sometimes it looks like they are on vacation all the time. I think the US army and Belgian army are quite different.
But I think you’re right and the survival lessons relie heavily on high tech stuff, which is useless in my goal.
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 4:53 PM
Is there actually anyone on this site who is not from the USA?
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 4:55 PM
Would you help anyone you did come across that did have an imagination about it while the collapse was happening?
Not me. I know I can’t depend on finding someone already doing it when it happens. If I am not successful and I find people in the wilderness that do know, I would ask them at least. But I’m not preparing with that as something I can lean back on. The wilderness is pretty big and the likelihood of seeing other primitivists would probably be pretty low. I was just wondering.
Comment by planetwarming — 24 January 2006 @ 4:56 PM
It would depend. I don’t think I would shoot on sight. But, it would depend.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 24 January 2006 @ 5:18 PM
I attended the Air Force’s “Combat Survival Training” course in 1996. It was basically a week of academics, and then two weeks in the high mountains of Colorado in July (valley floor @ 9,000′). It wasn’t really a great deal of use, other than actually killing, skinning, and eating a rabbit. We caught a woodchuck in one of our snares that we built (which was not a common occurence), but we weren’t allowed to eat it for some administrative reason. Even in this relatively sparse environment, there was plenty of food to gather–wild strawberries, greens, nettles, etc. Otherwise we mostly focused on the evasion and escape aspects of the training. Personally, my greatest takeaway was that it’s surprisingly easy to find a large supply of ants and grubs (look in stumps), and they are both actually quite tasty (little sour, crunchy for the ants), and high in protein. It might take you an hour, but I’m sure that you can find and eat 1000 calories of ants in most environments.
Anyway, beyond academics, we never got a chance to try making fire without any supplies. I think I’ll give it a try one of these days–here’s a rather funny account of one man’s attempt:
http://www.cockeyed.com/incredible/fire/firefirst.html
Comment by Jeff Vail — 24 January 2006 @ 5:41 PM
Jeff Vail: Yea I saw that cockeyed.com article before. I tried making my first friction fire a year ago based on that article. It’s really funny indeed
Comment by gunnix — 24 January 2006 @ 6:24 PM
Jason, if the poor in Africa starve right now while we are eating too much, what is to prevent the same thing here, when the depression comes?
What is to prevent the poor to starve on insufficient rations and hand outs as the rich organize fortresses with sufficient firepower and security to repell the starving masses and keep living comfortably for a longer while?
Let us suppose that a process for direct energy to food transfer is perfected, as in chlorella cultivation, or artificial proteins production, or something of that nature. Then, any fortress with ample local energy supplies will be able to support a small elite population longer than it takes for most of outside population to stop functioning. Then, after the remaining population is sufficiently thinned, and the fortress sitters are tired of their artificial rations, they come out, grab the survivors and make them work the fields or the ranches and extend the collapse.
The starving poor won’t go crazy very quickly because they will be starved slowly by reducing the food rations and further diminishing nutrition.
For the example: The Leningrad blocade (1941-1944)lasted for 900 days, during most of which the citizen’s daily ration was 250g of bread made half with flower and half with wood shavings. In addition, the city was bombarded daily. Half the population died (over a million casualties). Cannibalism incidents were reported, and not many pets survived. Other mammal populatons in the city didn’t fare much better. Even the zoo animals were eaten. However, the military top brass and political elite in the city still managed quite well.
Comment by _Gi — 24 January 2006 @ 8:12 PM
What I don’t like about Earthwalk Northwest is they teach you a mix of primitive skills along with modern technology. For instance, they teach you to make a primitive bow by using a draw knife and a workbench with a vice. Do you really want to learn how to make a bow that way? Wouldn’t it be more valuable to learn without the draw knife and workbench? Or do you plan on hauling a ton of modern stuff with you into the wilderness of your choice? Maybe that’s okay, but it just doesn’t sound like the right way to learn.
From what I have found so far, Boulder Outdoor Survival School (BOSS) seems to offer field classes that are the most realistic, as far as learning primitive living skill are concerned. Some of their classes are pretty tough and a lot of students drop out before finishing, but other classes don’t sound that intense. The negative, as I see it, is they are both a survival and primitive living school, and the field courses push you pretty hard to test your endurance and see what you’re made of. Not a bad thing, really, just not strictly primitive living, which is what I would prefer. I haven’t made any decision, just looking around and pondering, like most of us are doing.
Here are some articles I found to give anyone interested a good idea of what they are about, even though one of them is from 1988. Background article, Mother Earth News article, and a former student’s article.
Anyone have an opinion as to whether BOSS classes might be a good way to go? Oh… sorry… I forgot where I was… I know you have an opinion!
Would appreciate hearing them.
Comment by George — 24 January 2006 @ 8:19 PM
Jeff, what would be your estimate of the total number of people currently 18-50 years of age, that have received training from the US armed forces similar or superior to what you have described?
Comment by _Gi — 24 January 2006 @ 8:45 PM
George,
I’ve talked with people who’ve done the BOSS courses. Also, with one of their seasonal instructors. I really liked what I heard. This was ten years ago, though.
You might consider Rabbitstick, too. I’m hoping to make it this year. Well regarded by those I’ve asked about it.
Links can be found here:
http://www.primitive.org/
Rabbitstick is put on by the Society of Primitive Technology. They have some nice publications. In fact, after I get done with this message, I’ll be ordering some back issues of their bulletin and Book II. I already have their Book I and a couple of issues from when I was a member in the mid-90’s. Great stuff.
Eric
Comment by Eric — 24 January 2006 @ 9:42 PM
Sorry. Rabbitstick is actually put on by Backtracks. Though Wescott appears to be part of Backtracks, as well as, Society of Primitive Technology.
Comment by Eric — 24 January 2006 @ 10:25 PM
Yikes. Thinking faster than I’m typing. The Wescott reference above should have been Dave Wescot, who appears to be associated with each organization. I was attempting to indicate a relationship between the two organizations.
OK, I’ll stop now.
Comment by Eric — 24 January 2006 @ 10:35 PM
Okay, Eric, I think I got it now. I’ve had days like that, too. More than I care to admit.
I’ve actually been to that site before. There is a link on that page to an interesting article called The Art of Nothing — as it pertains to hunter/gatherers.
Later.
Comment by George — 24 January 2006 @ 11:01 PM
_Gi,
I’d say it’s (very) roughly 50,000. At lest 1,500/year go through essentially the same course that I took, which is the baseline survival course. An additional few hundred a year get more advanced training. However, the military training really focuses on the skills needed in a military setting–mostly focused on what happens when you eject behind enemy lines or some similar scenario.
The only other training course that I can speak to is the Boy Scout’s “Wilderness Survival Merit Badge,” which I also have earned. I’ll bet there are several hundred thousand who have earned this, but it’s not worth much either. You do have to spend the night in a shelter that you made from foraged materials, though. Boy Scouts in general may have once been a fairly rigorous skills training program (like when the “50-miler” was still a right of passage), but now it’s really just glorified Mormon child care program that “graduates” everyone with their Eagle badge at age 13. Bit jaded…
Comment by Jeff Vail — 24 January 2006 @ 11:19 PM
Ha, I remember my “Wilderness Survival Merit Badge.” I was under the impression that we were only allowed to bring a knife (and maybe a spark thrower), so I was pretty pissed when everyone else showed up with sleeping bags and tents (except my friend) and the leaders let them take them up. I guess now the merit badge it even more worthless (though at least my friend and I made a debris lean-to. The upside is that my friend and I found a huge blackberry patch and only told the others about it after we had thoroughly picked through it for any remotely ripe berries. I guess we hadn’t found our sharing forager vibe, but I think I would have shared if everyone else hadn’t brought sleeping bags.
I learned more about wilderness survival on impromptu camping trips on which we invariably forgot or intentionally left behind equipment.
We did learn some good stuff in Boy Scouts (we had an old, crudgemudgeony scoutmaster), like lashings, knots and all sorts of good first aid (like proper splints, treatment for shock and hypothermia, etc), so it wasn’t totally useless.
Comment by limukala — 25 January 2006 @ 2:19 AM
Jason, I think that you severely underestimate the American cultural diversity and its consequences in the event of the crash. In all of your examples of previous crashes and their consequences, the affected cultures were relatively small and homogenous. The American culture of today is not. You often talk about people only eating what they can think of as food, and limitations due to imagination. In a relatively homogenous culture, these are very valid points. In my experience, American culture is not at all homogenous, and different cultural subgroups will have different ideas and different imaginations.
If one starving family started eating dandelions and acorns because they thought it was food, five other starving families might be emulating them the next day. Sure they are crazed with hunger and eat what is not food, but they are fellow citizens and we are crazed with hunger too, they seem to be ok, lets see if they got a good idea. If I am desperate enough to try to eat a leather belt or a casein-based glue, I am probably deperate enough to try eating what my fellow citizen is trying to eat.
You think that you and your tribe and other tribes like yours will become aliens to the those that remain as soon as you leave, but it is more likely, that you will appear to them as a fellow citizen playing Surviver for real stakes. There won’t be immediate cultural gulf wide enough to be unsurmountable. If the stakes are high, you will find that many will want to play the same game.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 11:47 AM
Not a thing–in fact, I’m expecting it.
Well, that’s where the plan kinda falls apart. The survivors will be very hard to track down–the Czar never really conquered the Cossacks–and there won’t be any real fields to work.
Hmmm. I see what you’re saying, but I can also see some merit in the approach. Working with modern tools you’re used to lets you focus on the process of bow-making itself. Once you’ve got that down, you can add flint-knapping, and doing it with your stone knife.
It’s not so utterly useless, since modern tools should probably last at least long enough for us to learn how to replace them, if we make a point of learning how to replace them. Replacing them one at a time might be a good idea. For instance, when I start hunting this year, I’m going to learn to do it with a gun. Then, I’m going to go to an industrial bow. Then I’m going to learn to make my own bow, and use that.
This isn’t a matter of cultural diversity. This is a matter of acculturation, it’s simply being human. All cultures react the same way.
Yes–a big mix of many different cultures that all react the same way.
If anything, I think Americans may be less suited. Dandelions are not food to us. Neither is any kind of road kill. We know we can eat fish, and cereal grains, and domesticated animals. Deer floats around in our heads, but we’re still not geared to look to the wilderness for food. The Vikings had a much stronger precedence with fish–it was once a staple to them! But they starved anyway, to maintan their culture. Yes, Americans have had contact with a few other cultures, but they’re very closely related cultures (feudal Japan and modern America differ primarily in aesthetics), and they eat very similar things.
That’s never how it works, and with the increased importance of compliance in American culture that arises from its “melting pot” model, the typical reaction to cast out the offending individuals would only be underlined.
I don’t think anyone’s going to think of that, either.
Why, when even my friends now treat me like an alien already, when we’ve barely done anything yet?
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 12:19 PM
I find it hard to believe that multitudes of herbal tea consumers and even greater multitudes of people who are aware that herbal tea consumers exist will find it hard to accept that someone is making a tea out of dandelions or any other green thing that grows in the yard, and cast them out of the community. And you have to be kidding about road kill. Have you ever watched the “Simpsons”?
I am sure millions have, and the show occasionally makes fun of hicks who eat road kill. Other sitcoms also had similar jokes. These jokes are “based on real events” Some people in the US are already accustomed to eating road kill. Moreover, millions have the meme that if you are very poor, you have to eat road kill occasionally and you have to like it no matter how disgusting it seems. You think people won’t try road kill when there is nothing else to eat because they don’t want to be laughed at or because they don’t want to be considered very poor? How are road kill animals different from dogs and cats which you admit are going to end up in the soup?
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 3:12 PM
Down south the police have lists of people who claim the road kill. They just go down the list and offer it to people in order.
Of course, the problem is that while we know people can just change their food sources, the point his that, historically speaking, they just don’t. They never have. And in a society that is more removed from their food than any previous? I doubt we’ll be the first to eat “not food” rather than die.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 25 January 2006 @ 3:16 PM
That we make fun of them for it is the surest sign that we won’t do it.
There were many Greenland jokes about the “skraelings,” you’ll recall.
As far as herbal tea … my mother drinks all kinds of herbal teas. She’s the type you’re talking about. But she’s repulsed, disgusted and horrified by the idea that I make my own. She’s certain that I’ll die from my habit of picking dandelions.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 3:27 PM
The “skraelings” and the Vikings were two separate cultures, two completely different societies.
The people who eat road kill today and the people who make fun of them still identify themselves as members of the same society and same culture. The only difference is the poverty level. When times change to much worse, the people who are able to scratch a living from “non-food” are more likely to be respected and emulated by their starving neighbors than laughed out of town. As the saying goes, “if you are so smart, why aren’t you rich”, or to correct it for the changing times “why aren’t you fed”.
They won’t be some abhorrent alien bums, they’ll be fellow citizens who fell on hard times just like us and trying wierd ways to cope.
Your mother doesn’t need your tea now. She doesn’t think you need it either. When she really needs it, she’ll change her mind, because you are her son and you are smart.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 3:45 PM
Why would that suddenly change when the rich and poor don’t think of themselves as a part of the same society now?
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 25 January 2006 @ 3:48 PM
That’s an arbitrary distinction. There’s as much cultural distance between city-dwellers and country hicks as there was between Vikings and Inuit. Don’t be fooled by the myth of “the nation”–these are not the same society.
But that has little to do with the phenomenon. To the Vikings, the habits of the Inuit were irrelevant, because they weren’t really people. I see the same attitude among city-dwellers for rural folk. I could pluck it word for word from the sagas.
Why would we suddenly look at the as “fellow citizens” when times become hard, when we look at them as abhorrent alien bums now, when times are good? Such high opinions have a strong correlation with a high economy. Economic stress tends to bring out the worst in us.
I hope my mother will change her mind when it comes down to it, but of all those herbal tea drinkers, how many of them have a primitivist in the family? Not many.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 3:50 PM
I disagree. How many Vikings aknowledged their recent ancestors were Inuit? In the first place, a negligible percentage of them could make this claim and remain truthful.
Compare it with the number of today’s city-dwellers who aknowledge their rural roots and their rural grandparents. Some of these city folks with rural roots will be very capable of going back to their old grandparents’ ways. And their neighbors will see them not as alien bums, but as desperate people just like themselves who are trying some wierd, old, long-forgotten way of survival, which may prove superior. Some of these survivalist types may be accidentally well-respected by community even prior to collapse. If a bum eats a rat, you’ll probably ignore it because everyone knows about a brutish and short life of a bum. If your professor eats a rat, you’ll be a bit more deferring, even if you think that the old coot is out of his mind from hunger.
If the “roadkill eaters” are successful, their neighbors will come to them to beg for food to feed their own children. And as a consequence, the knowledge of survival will spread in the neighborhood.
Your friends may think you are alien now, but when times become very hard they will remember that Jason knows ways to fill his stomach, and they will come to you for help, because they know that you are human just like them and not really an alien.
I doubt Vikings had a habit of befriending Inuit.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 4:24 PM
I would like to point out, regardless, that we are the fringe of the fringe and even if our friends and their friends and their family start trying to do this, it’s still not going to amount to as many people as we think.
I live in a city of millions. If I walked out, I doubt more than a couple of hundred, maybe a thousand tops would follow and thats —really— stretching it.
That still leaves an awful lot of people behind. And while I can’t feed 1000 people with my primitive skills (of which I lack completely currently), we can use community to set up a strategy to try and survive. Bands and tribes stretching out to find different ways.
Or so I’d hope.
Comment by Bill Maxwell — 25 January 2006 @ 4:40 PM
I doubt that the Vikings and Inuit talked the same language. I think one of the strongest differences between different cultures or groups is the language difference. But if both talk good English, I doubt people will see them so different from themselves that they wouldn’t even try to get food the way the others do.
Comment by gunnix — 25 January 2006 @ 4:43 PM
You mean the way the Donner party got food just like the English-speaking Paiute Indians showed them, rather than starving to death and eventually resorting to grisly cannibalism?
I know it’s difficult to wrap your mind around, but these are the facts of human psychology. Acculturation is a very powerful thing.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 4:46 PM
Because a depression preceding collapse will create a very large number of poor people who will have some time to start identifying themselves as poor people.
I am always having these people in mind, as the very rich and powerful will be left to their high security gated communities anyway, and their concerns are truly different.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 4:51 PM
One’s identity about oneself being “rich” or “poor” changes much more slowly than their actual material standing. Rich people still think of themselves as “rich” even when they’re having a temporarily rough time.
If things progress quickly enough–and I think they will–reality will be upon them before their self-identity is ready to catch up.
But, in those cases where one is “demeaned” to such levels, the importance of maintaining the traditions of one’s former class becomes all the more important. I would expect a rich person to be much more willing to try road kill as a rich person, than out of desperation afterwards. Then, it becomes a matter of pride. And “dying for honor” is something we’ve spent a good deal of time romanticizing.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 4:56 PM
As far as Leavers are concerned, they might as well not exist, they will surely not make a difference in the city when they walk out because their plan is to leave an optimal time interval ahead of the collapse to maximize their chances. I am thinking of people potentially in possession of foraging survival skills who decide or who are forced to stay behind initially as collapse progresses. Since a city is still a kind of ecology, there will be edible matter available to these city foragers, just like it is available to foragers in some very desolate landscapes. The city foragers will exist and they may present a unique challenge to Jason’s tribe because of several factors.
If they exist in sufficient numbers, they will teach an even larger population to forage, and this will eventually force them to migrate out of the city as the city ecology obviously will not support the city population. If this happens fast, you’ll have to contend with masses of “campers”, ill-prepared to survive outside familiar city ecology, but still willing to try because they had the fortune to realize that remaining in the city indefinitely will get them eaten, and they prefer risk of death from exposure to a larger risk of being eaten.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 5:10 PM
Ever try foraging in a city? I have … it ain’t pretty. The most barren desert has more life in it than your most ecological city.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 5:13 PM
Dying for honor has been largely out of fashion for some time now. And large numbers of poor urban people who know that they are poor already exist. And they will be willing to try a lot of different things when government abandons the cities. All they will need would be a few right ideas, and they will spread as everyone with the wrong ideas starves quickly. And the formerly rich will be ashamed when their children are starving to death as their formerly poorer neighbors are eating something. The formerly rich will be educated and willing to learn and spread the learning. Fortunately, our caste system is too new to calcify into immobility. Many people will think “easy come easy go”, and revert back to being poor in a short time. The young people who often rebel against their parents will accelerate this process.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 5:29 PM
Maybe you should try it again after you finish your wilderness training program. Cities have lots of food.
Rats, mice, pigeons, squirrels, stray cats and dogs and cockroaches can be found in the cities in large numbers. Its not pretty because we never needed it to survive. And you are trying to adjust to different ecology anyway. The people remaining won’t be so lucky with their choices.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 5:36 PM
Not among the rich.
Urban poor and rural poor are worlds apart, and they like it that way. No, the urban poor tend to define their self-worth in terms of not being rural poor.
Exactly what I’ve been saying. But those “few right ideas” are incredibly rare. Starvation spreads much more quickly.
Didn’t change anything for all the other aristocracies who collapsed.
Ummm … no way in hell. Have you ever spent any amount of time with America’s wealthy?
And it takes lots of food to feed someone, too. I counted up all the wild edibles and animals that I could snag, and I figured that if I just ate everything, I could probably feed the entire Tribe of Anthropik (all four of us) for about a year. Doing so, though, would probably wipe out what carrying capacity is left.
It’s the same ecology I’m training for, it’s just trying to spring up between cracks in the sidewalk. No, I’m about as worried as people becoming foragers in the city as I would be of an alien invasion.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 5:46 PM
I’ll admit that I’m not very impressed by many SERE graduates (Survive, Evade, Resist, Escape). Most of the skills they are taught are for evasion and stealth. Any survival skills they are taught are engineered towards surviving until… fill-in-the-blank, be it a rescue or reaching a safe-house, not longterm wilderness living. Of course, they may have an edge, but it’ll be a razor’s edge.
WOO HOO! Man, that brings back some fucked up memories! Makes me want to throw on the khakis and jump back into it all.
- Chuck
Comment by Chuck — 25 January 2006 @ 6:15 PM
Funny story. First, I should disclaim that I only did the Survival, Evasion, & Escape part–we skipped the “Resistance” because of a series of scandals.
Then, on to the funny story- A friend of mine, during this training, was “evading” from one “partisan camp” to another. His party got lost. When you get lost, you’re supposed to just walk East and eventually you’ll hit a dirt road, then you sit and wait until a roving jeep comes and helps you out. I guess this happened a lot. Anyway, they walked East, and walked right over the road without noticing it(!). So they kept on walking East looking for this dirt road. They walked for about 6 hours, until one of the party collapsed from dehydration. My friend kept walking East, leaving the third person in his party to stay with the dehydrated guy. He kept walking East until the next morning, and then he found a road–except it was a 4-lane highway. Now, it’s important to remember that my friend was in full camo, with camo make-up, branches and other woodland debris attached to him, and having spent the past week in the woods. So he sticks out his thumb, and tries to get a ride. Next (in classic stereotypical fashion), an old VW bus pulls over and offers him a ride in their smoke filled interior. Long story short, their next stop is about half an hour away at a gas station, so my friend makes a collect call to the training command post, and tells them to come to the “Loaf-n-Jug” to pick him up.
So yeah, I’d agree with your assessment of SERE: I’d probably give the advantage to the Boy Scouts…
Comment by Jeff Vail — 25 January 2006 @ 6:57 PM
Jason, tell me which idea do you find more radical, the idea that you can eat your neighbor or the idea that you can eat your neighbor’s dog?
I don’t find your prediction of gangs of urban cannibals completely implausible. I find it implausible that these people will skip over eating their neighbor’s dog to eating their neighbor.
But if they start with the neighbor’s dog, the next logical step is a stray dog, and then a squirrel and a pigeon and a rat, and before these people turn into cannibals, they turn into hardened urban foragers, skilled hunters ready for the ultimate prey.
You may have a home terrain advantage against them, but I doubt you will have much of an edge in hunting skill.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 7:34 PM
Oh, they always eat the dogs first, no doubt about that. But if the logic was really as clear-cut as you say … why, in all the previous instances of collapse, did it never quite work out that way? Eating squirrels does not make you a forager–and eating your neighbor’’s dog does not make you a skilled hunter.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 25 January 2006 @ 7:37 PM
But you do need to catch the strays and the squirrels and the pigeons. As you practice catching prey, you acquire a certain skill. How do you call a skill of catching prey?
Is this skill transferrable to a different environment? You tell me.
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 8:01 PM
What previous instances? The Vikings didn’t have anything but their dogs and their cows. The Easter Islanders didn’t even have a single bird left.
Speaking of Greenland, don’t you find it strange that the last entries in their chronicles constantly mention Inuit raids that capture their youth?
Why would Inuit want their youth? Isn’t it likely that the chronicles’ entries are politically correct way of telling us that the youth escaped to Inuit on their own free will.
If you find it plausible, then the same will happen with our youth. They will rebel against their stupid starving parents and eat all kinds of weird non-food stuff.
By the way, what is your tribe SOP if you meet a lone child your neck of the woods? How about if you meet a pack of children?
Comment by _Gi — 25 January 2006 @ 8:10 PM
Neighbor’s dog. But you haven’t met my neighbor and his dog.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 25 January 2006 @ 9:06 PM
I think Africa might be a good example of how things go in famine. Why don’t the famined go somewhere else? Why don’t they try to make contact with the Bushmen?
Comment by planetwarming — 26 January 2006 @ 12:16 PM
The same reasons as far as your question goes, but Africa fails as an analogy when we get to how the situation is able to continue, because it’s in a peer polity system, and that keeps it propped up at a level of continual strife and starvation, rather than finishing collapse and being done with it.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 26 January 2006 @ 1:00 PM